Bayesian Methods with Applications to Science, Policy, and Official Statistics
Selected Papers from ISBA 2000:
The Sixth World Meeting of the International Society for Bayesian Analysis

Editor: E. I. George. Associate Editors: D. Ashby, M.J. Bayarri, B. P. Carlin, A. L. Carriquiry, M. A. Clyde, M. L. Cohen, G. S. Datta, D. M. Defays, P. Dellaportas, M.J. Evans, S.E. Fienberg, A. E. Gelfand, J. Geweke, L.R. Pericchi, M.F.J. Steel and P.K. Vlachos.

Table of Contents

Preface

i

Bayarri, M.J. and Castellanos, M.E.: A Comparison Between p-values for Goodness-of-fit Checking

1

Bellazzi, R. and Magni, P.: Structural Analysis of the Abortion Time Series Reported in the ISTAT Summaries

Bos, C. S., Mahieu, R. J. and van Dijk, H. K.: On the Variation of Hedging Decisions in Daily Currency Risk Management

Carlin, B. P., Zhu, L. and Gelfand, A. E.: Accommodating Scale Misalignment in Spatio-Temporal Data

Carriquiry, A. L. and Daniels, M.: Adjusting for Measurement Error of a Dietary Risk Factor in Age-related Maculopathy

Castelloe, J. M.: Reversible Jump MCMC Analysis of Spatial Poisson Cluster Processes

Chen, L., Qin, Z. and Liu, J. S.: Exploring Hybrid Monte Carlo in Bayesian Computation

Chen, M-H. and Ibrahim, J. G.: Bayesian Model Comparisons for Survival Data with A Cure Fraction

Cox, L. H.: Towards a Bayesian Perspective on Statistical Disclosure Limitation

Craiu, R. V. and Meng, X-L.: Antithetic Coupling for Perfect Sampling

Dawid, A. P. and Lauritzen, S. L.: Compatible Prior Distributions

de Waal, D. J. and Beirlant, J.: Bayes Predictions of High Quantiles in a Multivariate Extreme Value Model with Regression

Fernandez, S. A., Fernando, R. L. and Carriquiry, A. L.: An Algorithm to Sample Unobservable Genotypes in Complex Pedigrees

Fienberg, S. E. and Makov, U. E.: Uniqueness and Disclosure Risk: Urn Models and Simulation

Fischer, R. and Dose, V.: Analysis of Mixtures in Physical Spectra

Fortini, M., Liseo, B., Nuccitelli, A. and Scanu, M.: On Bayesian Record Linkage

Geweke, J. and McCausland, W.: Embedding Bayesian Tools in Mathematical Software

Girard, P. and Parent, E.: The Deductive Phase of Statistical Inference Via Predictive Simulations

Gonzalez, E. and Ginebra, J.: Simulation Based Designs for Control that Improve on Certainty Equivalence

Groenewald, P. C. N.: The Estimation of Switchpoints in Multi-path Linear Regression

He, C. Z., Sun, D. and Tra, Y.: Bayesian Analysis for Avian Nesting Survival Models with Dirichlet Priors

Heiner, K. W. and Walshaw, D.: Inferences on Healthcare Indicators for the Treatment of HIV/AIDS

Hoggart, C. J. and Griffin, J. E.: A Bayesian Partition Model for Customer Attrition

Holloway, G. J., Barrett, C. B. and Ehui, S. K.: Crossbred Cow Adoption and Milk Market Participation in a Multivariate Count Data Framework

Jefferys, W. H., Barnes, T. G., Rodrigues, R., Berger, J. O. and Muller, P.: Model Selection for Cepheid Star Oscillations

Johnson, W. O., Hanson, T., Gastwirth, J. L. and Gardner, I. A.: Pooled Sample Screening with Quality Control

Kandala, N. B., Lang, S. and Klasen, S.: Semiparametric Analysis of Childhood Undernutrition in Developing Countries

Kokolakis, G. and Nanopoulos, P.: Bayesian Multivariate Micro-Aggregation Under the Hellinger's Distance Criterion

Landsman, Z. and Makov, U. E.: Bayesian Prediction in the Exponential Dispersion Family with an Application to Actuarial Credibility

Lawson, A. and Kulldorff, M.: Point and Line Centre Cluster Modeling: A Comparison of Models With Flexible Forms

Lecoutre, B.: Bayesian Predictive Procedures for Designing and Monitoring Experiments

Lecoutre, B., Lecoutre, M-P. and Grouin, J-M.: A Challenge for Statistical Instructors: Teaching Bayesian Inference Without Discarding the "Official" Significance Tests

Li, K. and Poirier, D. J.: An Econometric Analysis of the Birth Process by Racial/Ethnic Groups

Linardakis, M. and Dellaportas, P.: An Approach to Multidimensional Item Response Modeling

Lubrano, M.: Bayesian Model Choice for the Short Term US Interest Rate

MacEachern, S. N.: Decision Theoretic Aspects of Dependent Nonparametric Processes

Meyer, R. and Millar, R.: State-Space Models for Stock-Recruit Time Series

Mostert, P. J., Roux, J. J. J. and Bekker, A.: A Bayesian Method to Analyse Cancer Survival Times Using the Weibull Model

Murdoch, D. J. and Meng, X-L.: Towards Perfect Sampling for Bayesian Mixture Priors

Pereira, C. A. and Stern, J. M.: Full Bayesian Significance Test for Coefficients of Variation Coefficients of Variation

Perez, J. M. and Berger, J. O.: Analysis of Mixture Models Using Expected Posterior Priors, with Application to Classification of Gamma Ray Bursts

Press, S.J. and Marquis, K.H.: Bayes in a U.S. Census Survey Using Respondent Generated Intervals

411

Pretorius, A. L. and van der Merwe, A. J.: Nonparametric Bayesian Estimation for the Mixed Linear Model

Ramoni, M. and Sebastiani, P.: Analysis of Survey Data with Bayesian Networks

Reiter, J. P.: Borrowing Strength without Explicit Data Pooling

Rodrigues, J., Milan, L. A. and Leite, J. G.: Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis for the Number of Species

Rodriguez, A. and Pericchi, L. R.: Intrinsic Bayes Factors for Dynamic Linear Models

Sareen, S.: Relating Jeffreys' Prior and Reference Prior in Nonregular Problems

Sebastiani, P. and Ramoni, M.: Bayesian Clustering by Dynamics of European School Population

Shemyakin, A. and Youn, H. Y.: Bayesian Estimation of Joint Survival Functions in Life Insuranc

Sheriff, S. L., Sun, D., He, Z. and Woodard, R.: Using Bayesian Analysis for Spatial Estimation of Turkey Hunter Success Rates

Sinharay, S. and Stern, H. S.: Bayes Factors for Variance Component Testing in Generalized Linear Mixed Models

Soyer, R. and Sung, M.: Bayesian Analysis of Nonhomogeneous Markov Chains

Soyer, R. and Tanyeri, K.: Bayesian Portfolio Selection in Random Variance Models

Swartz, T. B.: Bayesian Modeling and Computations in Final Offer Arbitration

van der Merwe, A. J. and Pretorius, A. L.: Bayesian Method of Moments in the Case of the Mixed Linear Model

Vannucci, M., Brown, P. J. and Fearn, T.: Predictor Selection for Model Averaging

Yau, P., Kohn, R. and Wood, S.: Bayesian Variable Selection and Model Averaging in High Dimensional Multinomial Nonparametric Regression

Zellner, A. and Chen, B.: Bayesian Modeling of Economies and Data Requirements

Ziegelmann, P. K. and Brown, P. J.: Bayesian Approach in Pharmacokinetics Models